As everyone should know, President Obama is trying to pass a bill to help create more jobs. He doesn’t seem to be getting a lot of help, even from Democrats. Many people seem to think that Mr. Obama’s ability to create jobs will be crucial to his re-election. Well, that may be true if the lack of jobs leads to a recession, but research shows that unemployment numbers really don’t mean that much in the election of the incumbent. See this more comprehensive analysis by Nate Silver. Mr. Silver shows that there is insufficient data to make a conclusion based on the number of presidents being re-elected.
Further, quantitative historian Allen Lichtman of American University has developed a system of 13 keys to predict whether the incumbent can win. His model “correctly predicted the popular vote outcome of every U. S. presidential election since 1984, including George H. W. Bush’s comeback from nearly 20 percent behind in the polls in 1988 and Al Gore’s narrow win in 2000.” Neither unemployment nor approval ratings factor into the 13 keys.